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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 14 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +4.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP