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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 44

Houston Texans 13 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 9-S.Lechler punts 33 yards to NE 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Edelman ran ob at NE 18 for 7 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP