Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 72

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 0

(13:13) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to NE 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Edelman to NE 39 for 14 yards (43-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model