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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 9

Houston Texans 3 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 8-N.Novak 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 9, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP