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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:01) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to GB 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.95 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model