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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.23 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP