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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 84

Green Bay Packers 21 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 46 yards to DAL 38, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.07 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 84, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 42, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model