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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 93

Green Bay Packers 21 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(5:10) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 52 yards to DAL 41, Center-61-B.Goode. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 49 for 8 yards (58-J.Tripp; 29-K.Brice).

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.45 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 93, worth -5.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.93 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 51, worth -2.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model