Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:09) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to GB 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde. Green Bay's Burnett has a quad injury; his return is questionable.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model