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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 88

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-C.Cook pass short middle to 81-M.Rivera to LV 18 for 6 yards (35-E.Pleasant; 29-A.Hal).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.61 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 88, worth -2.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 46, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP