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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 32

Houston Texans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 8-N.Novak 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.18 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP