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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 54

Houston Texans 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to LV 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 38-T.Carrie to LV 11 for 2 yards (20-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP