Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Houston Texans 20

(7:25) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to HOU 22, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds. (The punt hang time was 3.17 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.63 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model