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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to HOU 11, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model