Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 76

Houston Texans 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to LV 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 30-J.Richard to HOU 49 for 17 yards (89-S.Anderson). (The punt hang time was 3.62 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model