Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Houston Texans 20

(:50) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to HOU 19, Center-59-J.Condo. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 35 for 16 yards (33-D.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.73 EP
56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model