Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Houston Texans 13

(7:48) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to HOU 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 22 for 7 yards (22-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.55 EP
64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model