Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Houston Texans 10

(13:18) 7-M.King punts 37 yards to HOU 5, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-33-D.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.40 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.57 EP

KICK -0.77 EP

50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
50% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model