Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 88

Houston Texans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(14:30) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to LV 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 30-J.Richard to LV 43 for 9 yards (43-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.56 EP
72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 88, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model