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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 20

Miami Dolphins 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.72 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model