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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:09) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-25-A.Burns, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.97 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model