Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 30

What Actually Happened

(11:38) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 41 yards to PIT 26, Center-92-J.Denney. 84-A.Brown to PIT 35 for 9 yards (45-M.Hull). MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.43 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model