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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(14:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to MIA 23, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model