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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 69

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 20 for 10 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.74 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model