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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 80

New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model