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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 89

New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to WAS 34, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to NYG 47 for 19 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.37 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 89, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP