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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Giants
4th & 12 at the 51
New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(6:19) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-1.03 EP
-
29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
- 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP
KICK
-1.53 EP
- 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
- 73% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
