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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 16

New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 13-O.Beckham (54-M.Foster).

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.00 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model