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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 71

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to WAS 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 48 for 25 yards (43-B.Rainey). PENALTY on WAS-35-D.Phillips, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.05 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model