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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 79

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 32 for 5 yards (29-D.Ihenacho).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.96 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 36, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model