Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 63

New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 0

(2:53) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to WAS 19, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 28 for 9 yards (53-D.Skinner).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.26 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model