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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 66

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 22 for 11 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP