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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model