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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(:41) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.35 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model