Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 70

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(9:14) 1-P.McAfee punts 45 yards to JAX 25, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model