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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 3-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to IND 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model