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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to IND 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.66 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP