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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 12

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:24) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.49 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model