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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 1-P.McAfee punts 51 yards to JAX 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 81-B.Walters to JAX 14 for -2 yards (40-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.31 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP