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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 3-B.Nortman punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model