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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 53

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to PHI 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.40 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.93 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP