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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 31

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 6-C.Sturgis 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model