Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(1:01) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to PHI 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.35 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model