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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to DAL 26, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-L.Whitehead ran ob at DAL 38 for 12 yards (56-B.Braman).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model