Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to PIT 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 14 for no gain. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at PIT 14. PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at PIT 14.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.51 EP
75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model