Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 97

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Cleveland Browns 21

(1:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 64 yards to CLE 33, Center-60-G.Warren. 15-M.Alford to 50 for 17 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.78 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 97, worth -5.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model