4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 31

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:39) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE-74-C.Erving was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.75 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model