Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 58

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

(8:05) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CLE 15, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 15-M.Alford.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model