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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 99

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(2:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to PIT 47, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.55 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.45 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 99, worth -6.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 53, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model