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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 12

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP